VIDEO - This will make you a better decision maker

My Notes

#leadership/decision-making nothing is as important as it seems, when you are thinking about it -> you should be aware of this bias, and maybe wait with the decision?
#communication/tip #leadership "i heard you, and trust me, your input was incorporated into the decision nevertheless this is the path we gonna take" -> example how to communicate the decision which may not be in popular with the team
#communication the best way to get somebody's opinion is independently/async (in other ways, it is better way than in chat/discussion)
phrases of the meeting/call: discover x discuss x decide
only thing that should happen in meeting/call is the discussion part -> no decision & discover what people think before the meeting
#leadership #communication/tip jak vytvorit dojem, ze jdou lidi slyseny? zopakovat to co rekli, ve smyslu zeptat se je, zda tomu rozumim dobre → “so, what am i hearing is that… is that right?” → potom co nekdo domluvi, zeptat se ho: "let me clarify, what i am hearing is… a, b, c, d , it that right?"
#leadership/decision-making treba si pamatovat: neni realne, ze kazdy bude souhlasit s tebou, nebo s tim co petrebujes prosadit, a tedy nemel by to byt tvuj goal aby vsihcni souhlasili → to je jen pro tebe, aby ses citil dobre
#communication/tip How to talk about your ideas as leader? → convey why I believe what I do. Not to convince anybody that I'm right.
#mental-model : not sure how to choose (what decision to make)? imagine yourself in a week/month/year from now - looking back, which of your older/more mature choices do you prefer? e.g. you can choose to play a video game or prepare for the test... one week later, how do you feel about your choice?

AI Summary

Main Idea:

This text presents an interview with Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and current consultant who assists companies with decision-making. The conversation covers various frameworks and strategies for improving decision quality, handling long feedback loops, the effective use of premortem analysis, and advice on quitting. The dialogue includes insights from Annie's experiences as well as lessons from her mentor Daniel Kahneman.

Main Ideas:

Importance of Making Implicit Knowledge Explicit:
- Quote: "It's so incredibly necessary in improving decision quality to take what's implicit and make it explicit... If you don't make it explicit then you don't get to find out when it's wrong."
- Explanation: Making implicit knowledge explicit allows for the identification and correction of errors, enhancing decision-making quality.
Decision-Making in Meetings:
- Quote: "The only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part."
- Explanation: Meetings should focus on discussion, while discovery and decision-making should be handled separately to reduce biases and encourage independent thinking.
Frameworks for Reducing Long Feedback Loops:
- Quote: "There is no such thing as a long feedback loop... you can choose to shorten the feedback loop."
- Explanation: By identifying necessary but not sufficient conditions for success, one can create shorter feedback loops and make quicker, more informed decisions.
Use of Premortem and Kill Criteria in Decision-Making:
- Quote: "A premortem is great but only if you attach a pre-commitment with it."
- Explanation: Premortem analysis can be effective in identifying future risks, but they are most powerful when coupled with specific kill criteria to guide action based on new information.
Lessons from Daniel Kahneman:
- Quote: "He really wanted to hear what you thought... He said 'I don't know' a lot. He would change his mind."
- Explanation: Daniel Kahneman's humility and openness to change were key to his success, emphasizing the value of open-mindedness and adversarial collaboration.

Actionable Ideas:

Nominal Group Technique for Meetings:
- Quote: "Discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other."
- Action: Gather opinions and data from team members independently before meeting to discuss and decide, minimizing group biases.
Kill Criteria for Projects:
- Quote: "Set up kill criteria... and commit to actions."
- Action: Establish specific criteria and actions for when to discontinue a project, ensuring prompt and rational decision-making based on ongoing assessment.
Mental Time Travel in Parenting and Leadership:
- Quote: "Mental time travel... How do you think you're going to feel about those two choices a week from now?"
- Action: Encourage perspective-taking to help in both personal and professional decision-making by imagining future outcomes.
Framework for Decision Quality in Long-Term Outcomes:
- Quote: "What are the things that are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire soon?"
- Action: Identify early indicators of long-term success to create shorter feedback loops and make adjustments accordingly.
Improving Decision Accuracy by Explicit Forecasting:
- Quote: "Let's make it explicit because you're doing it implicitly anyway."
- Action: Explicitly document forecasts and decisions to enable better evaluation and learning from past decisions.

Detailed Summary:

Introduction:

The importance of improving decision quality by making implicit knowledge explicit.

Main Themes Discussed:

The Role of Meetings in Decision-Making:
- Distinguishing between discovery, discussion, and decision phases.
- Benefits of nominal group technique.
Frameworks for Evaluating Long-Term Outcomes in Business:
- Utilizing necessary but not sufficient conditions to shorten feedback loops.
- Examples of effective frameworks used by companies.
Premortem Analysis and Kill Criteria:
- Importance of setting kill criteria to guide decisions mid-process.
- Case studies illustrating the use of premortem and kill criteria in business.
Lessons from Daniel Kahneman:
- Kahneman's approaches to decision-making and his influential humility and willingness to change his mind.
- Concept of adversarial collaboration for refining ideas.
Parallels in Decision-Making and Parenting:
- Advice on using mental time travel and the word 'nevertheless' for effective leadership and parenting decisions.
Insights on Quitting:
- The tendency to delay quitting due to biases like sunk cost and endowment effect.
- Example of Stuart Butterfield transitioning from Glitch to Slack by recognizing the need to quit early.

Methods to Implement Ideas:

Using independent discovery before meetings.
Setting kill criteria and actions using premortem analysis.
Applying mental time travel to future-oriented decision-making.
Explicit documentation and forecasting for better decision evaluations.

Narrator Quotes:

"It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man [Daniel Kahneman] was."
"The only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part."
"There is no such thing as a long feedback loop."
"I woke up this morning with the dead certainty that Glitch was over."

The text mentions Annie Duke's books, podcast appearances, consulting work, and other projects at several points. These instances were discussed in the text but omitted from the summary to maintain focus on the main and actionable ideas.

Actionable Takeaways

Step-by-Step Action Plan Based on Main Ideas

Immediate Action

Enable Better Decision-Making:
- Identify one decision-making process within your work or personal life.
- Map it out and explicitly document the implicit knowledge and assumptions involved.

Progressive Steps

Optimize Meetings:
- For the next meeting you organize, apply the Nominal Group Technique:
  - Before the meeting, ask participants to provide their thoughts independently.
  - During the meeting, focus solely on discussing these independent contributions.
Utilize Feedback Loops:
- Select a long-term project you're currently engaged in.
- Define "necessary but not sufficient" conditions for its success to identify early indicators.
- Monitor these indicators periodically to adjust your approach and shorten the feedback loop.
Adopt Premortem and Kill Criteria:
- Choose a risky decision or project that's underway.
- Conduct a premortem analysis to predict potential failure points.
- Set clear kill criteria based on the premortem to guide future decisions on the project.
Embrace Open-mindedness and Flexibility:
- Next time you're in a discussion, practice saying "I don't know" and show openness to changing your mind when presented with new evidence.

Long-Term Implementation

Improve Project Management:
- Implement kill criteria for all ongoing and future projects.
- Make kill criteria a standard part of project planning and review sessions.
Employ Mental Time Travel:
- Regularly exercise mental time travel by visualizing how you will feel about your choices in the future.
- Use this technique before making personal and professional decisions to assess their long-term impact.
Track Decisions and Outcomes:
- Begin explicitly documenting forecasting and decision-making processes in a dedicated log.
- Regularly review past decisions to learn and improve your decision accuracy over time.

Ongoing Practices

Cultivate Adversarial Collaboration:
- Seek out others who may have differing opinions on important topics.
- Engage in constructive, challenging conversations to refine your ideas and decision-making.
Reflect on Quitting Decisions:
- Consider current commitments or projects that may require reassessment.
- Reflect on any potential biases (like sunk cost or endowment effect) and determine if it's time to pivot or quit.

Additional Resources

Explore Annie Duke's works for insights on decision frameworks.
Familiarize yourself with Daniel Kahneman's approaches for further understanding the psychology behind decision-making.

Final Thoughts

By prioritizing these actions following the 80/20 principle, you can significantly improve decision-making processes, both personally and professionally. Start with making the implicit explicit and utilize these steps to develop a more effective and rational approach to the decisions ahead of you.

This article was originally published on https://craftengineer.com/. It was written by a human and polished using grammar tools for clarity.

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